Archive for July, 2004

Peter King predicts in the current Sports Illustrated that it’ll be Jacksonville and the Seahawks in the Super Bowl in January.

Gut reaction: I can live with that.

Reminder: Sporting News says Denver-Seattle

Booth for Danny Fortson – well done. The Sonics need a rebounding machine, and (here’s the key issue) when he’s engaged, Fortson is one of the best in the business. He needs minutes. He got lost last year in Dallas’ deep, run-and-gun system and never fit in there. He’ll help the Sonics. Collison will learn from him. Good move, Rick Sund.

After watching the likes of Olerud and Edgar turn into shells of their former, productive selves, it will be tempting for the M’s front office to assume the same is happening — or may happen — to Bret Boone. He’s been hot the past week, but his season totals are still way off his normal pace of the past 3 years. Assuming he reaches easy milestones this season, he’ll be due about $9 million next year. Too much to pay for an aging 2nd baseman?

Hardly.

By year’s end, it’s not a stretch to say that Boone will end up with 24-25 HRs and 85-90 RBIs. His BA will probably climb to about .260 when all is said and done. His OBP and SLG should both go up from their current levels. In short, he’ll end up with a year almost like he had in 2002. That was his worst year in Seattle so far, but it’s still better than just about any other 2B is going to give you.

In other words, here’s a guy who gives you 25-100-.260 when he’s having a BAD year. Numbers like that are, in this day and age, worth about $8-9 million per year. And if Boone bounces back in ‘05 and gets up in the 30-120-.290 range, then he becomes a bargain.

Of course, he also plays Gold Glove defense up the middle. Bargain.

So skip the idea of dealing him now. He’s still one of the top 3-4 second baseman in baseball, and that’s worth next year’s salary.

What happens after next year may be a problem. He’ll be 36 when 2005 ends. He’ll want a juicy 3-year deal at minimum, and there’s no way the M’s are gonna pay him well to the age of 39, not after the Olerud and Edgar drop-offs. So to the Mariners I say:

Redo his contract at the end of this season. Coming off a bad year, he may be in the mood for some security now. A 2-year deal may be right up his alley. Get him for the next two years at maybe $16 million and call it good. Maybe add in an option on the 3rd year. Just don’t let the Edgar and Olerud situations convince you it’s time for Boone to go now. It’s not. Bring back Boone.

Blackley and Madritsch pitching, Leone and Jacobsen fielding and hitting. Inning-ending double plays in the 10th, followed by walk-off titanic shots to dead center….

Dare I say that the Mariners are finally fun to watch again? Yes!

What a joy to watch Bucky Jacobsen get his first big league hit and see his Dad’s pride in the stands, and to watch guys like Justin Leone crack monster home runs to the upper deck on back-to-back nights. I love seeing the young guys getting a chance in the big leagues….

How sad to watch Travis Blackley get knocked all over the park one night, and see guys like Matt Thornton and Clint Nageotte struggle over the course of many nights to throw strikes and get guys out. It’s tough seeing the young guys come up and get overwhelmed by the experience….

Welcome to Mariners’ baseball, Summer 2004. Ya gotta love and hate these guys!

(But I am glad they’re getting a shot. Don’t get me wrong….)

Gonzaga has been my alma mater’s — and thus MINE, too — archrival for a great many years. Pepperdine Waves do not like Gonzaga Bulldogs. But when you live in the N’West for 10 years and you’re a sports fan, you can’t help but appreciate what Gonzaga has done in college basketball. I now route for them to win every game except when they play Pepperdine.

Here’s one reason I love Gonzaga basketball: the schedule they play every year. Here’s some of their non-conference opponents for the coming season:

*Oklahoma State
Illinois
Washington
Washington St.
UMass
*Georgia Tech
Missouri

* these are Final Four teams from last season

And best of all, the Zags will be on Fox Sports this year on a semi-regular basis. Can’t wait.

How refreshing to read that Shaun Alexander wants to stay in Seattle rather than leaving to explore bigger markets, better teams, and new opportunities.

While the Mariners have had to watch Griffey, Johnson, A-Rod, and Piniella (along with other lower-priority players) leave for greener pastures … and while the Sonics have gone YEARS without being able to even attract a big-name free agent to come play in the N’West … the Seahawks are doing it right. They have a solid organization, a great coach, an owner that doesn’t meddle, and a great product. Granted, they also have the luxury of being in the NFL, where the equality of the financial system gives teams in places like Seattle a chance to shine. But it’s no guarantee of success: Just look at the Cleveland Browns downturn of the past 2-3 years.

Here’s hoping the Hawks can keep Alexander, keep Hasselbeck, keep Jones, Robinson, etc. Winning has a way of overcoming the so-called deficiencies of playing in a city not named New York or Los Angeles.

How soon ’til football season starts?

… is how, with almost every important player on the Mariners roster having a 2004 season that is substantially worse than either their 2003 season, their career averages, or both, he can be blamed for this disastrous season we’re having.

To hear the Melvin Bashers tell it, as soon the manager is fired we’ll see Boone’s power numbers back at normal levels … we’ll see Edgar putting the fear of God into pitchers again … and we’ll see Olerud able to make it to 2nd base on those rare occasions when he actually hits the ball into a gap or corner. I just don’t get it.

I’ll be the first to agree that Melvin has made some strange, and bad, decisions at times during the year. But how many games can you say were lost by a Melvin decision? Three? Five? Let’s say five. (I really think 2-3 would be more accurate.) Take away five losses and make them wins, and the Mariners are still 37-48 and 11 games out of first. Clearly the manager is not the problem here. You simply cannot blame Melvin for the fact that most every player on the team has sucked this year.

I’m reminded that Joe Torre was considered a poor manager when the Yankees hired him in 1996. Now he’s a genius. That’s what happens when you have guys on your team named Pettite, Rivera, Wells, Clemens, Jeter, Williams, O’Neill, Posada, Giambi, etc.

From today’s Seattle P-I, Bavasi says:

“Going into the season, we believed Carlos and Richie were similar players and that Carlos hadn’t stayed healthy. We gambled and lost, and that’s not fun.”

Richie hadn’t done jack since 2001, and even then was a dramatically inferior defensive SS than Guillen. I’ve said it before, there’s no way anyone could believe that Aurilia would be an improvement for 162 games over 120 games of Guillen and 42 games of Bloomquist or someone filling in if/when Guillen got hurt. It’s good Aurilia is going. We need to close the book on one of the worst FA signings in team history.

Brent Barry is headed to San Antonio. Can’t blame him; wouldn’t we all want a chance to play with Tim Duncan and win a title year in and year out?

Numbers-wise, the Sonics have the personnel to make up for Barry’s departure. They have plenty of slasher-type G/Fs, what with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Flip Murray still around. But Barry was glue for the Sonics. Crowded backcourt or not, he was vital. He’s one of those guys who can put up a stat line like 6 pts, 5 reb, and 7 asts and really help your team win. Sonics were 7-16 in games without him last year, and 30-29 with him. Guys like that are hard to replace, even if you have plenty of bodies ready to try.